Six-term incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock was projected defeat Democratic challenger Brynne Kennedy in California's 4th Congressional District, Insider and Decision Desk HQ can report.
California currently has a "top-two primary" system, meaning that the top two winners of the primary election go on the final ballot, regardless of their political party.
The candidates
McClintock is a former California state assemblyman and state senator, positions he held for 12 years. Before running for the US House of Representatives, McClintock ran for Office of the State Comptroller in 1994 and 1992, California governor in the 2003 recall gubernatorial election, and lieutenant governor in the 2006 gubernatorial election, losing in every single one.
In Congress, McClintock serves on the House Committee on the Judiciary and the Committee on Natural Resources, focusing many of his efforts on natural resource issues important to California. McClintock has sided with President Donald Trump 88% of the time in his voting record since 2017, according to FiveThirtyEight, and voted against the CARES Act for COVID-19 relief in March.
Kennedy is a former gymnast and business owner of the software company Topia. She is a former columnist for the Financial Times and the author of a book on employee mobility. Her campaign is focused on strengthening the Affordable Care Act, combatting wildfire threats, and modernizing the Department of Veterans Affairs.
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The district
California's 4th Congressional District is located in an entirely inland part of east-central California, stretching down from Truckee and South Lake Tahoe in Northern California down to the area outside of Fresno.
Most of the district's voters live in the fast-growing Sacramento suburbs, which have traditionally voted Republican but could be trending Democratic this cycle.
It is home to the counties of Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, El Dorado, Mariposa, and Tuolumne as well as parts of Placer, Fresno, Madera, and Nevada counties.
In the 2016 presidential election, the 4th District voted for Trump over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in a 54% to 39% split of the vote, according to the Daily Kos.
The money race
Kennedy has both outraised and outspent McClintock, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Kennedy has brought in $2.4 million, spent $2.4 million, and has around $65,000 in cash on hand while McClintock has raised $1.9 million, spent $1.5 million, and has around $583,000 in cash on hand.
What the experts said
The race between McClintock and Kennedy was rated as "safe Republican" by Inside Elections and "likely Republican" by the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
