Science

Prepare for US coronavirus case numbers to keep spiking — it's because we're finally testing

Read in app

 

Widespread testing is an important strategy for curbing the coronavirus' spread because it allows health officials to track and quarantine infected people, and also to trace others who an infected person had contact with.

So even though more widespread testing in the US means case numbers are reaching alarming levels, it is good overall that the US is catching more cases.

How to flatten the curve

Health experts are urging interventions that help "flatten the curve" — in other words, slow the virus' spread to reduce the number of people who are sick at the peak of the outbreak. That way, the country's  healthcare system is less at risk of being overwhelmed. 

coronavirus covid 19 spread healthcare system protective measures 2x1 flatten the curve
Samantha Lee/Business Insider

Evidence from countries like China, Italy, and South Korea so far suggests there are two effective strategies for fighting the coronavirus' spread: aggressive testing and social isolation.

Testing ensures that more sick people get treated and quarantined, and allows for contact tracing. If asymptomatic patients and those with mild cases don't get tested, some won't know they have COVID-19 and may continue spreading it. They also can't let their contacts know they've been exposed.

Social distancing, meanwhile, is necessary because studies so far suggest that on average, coronavirus patients pass the virus to 2.5 other people. Infected people can transmit the virus through coughing or spitting to others within 6 feet.

 

 

Many  US states have announced social distancing measures — California Gov. Gavin Newsom has closed schools and told all residents to "stay at home" and only leave for essential services. New York Gov. Cuomo has mandated that nonessential businesses keep their workers at home starting Sunday evening.

Other states have similar measures: Ohio's state health department issued a "stay at home" order Sunday, and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds banned gatherings of 10 or more, closing bars, restaurants, and other facilities for at least two weeks.

You don't know who has the virus if you don't test

South Korea has been conducting between 12,000-15,000 coronavirus tests per day. The country has conducted more than 315,000 tests in total. (The chart below reflects the testing totals from Friday.)

COVID 19 testing per capita 2X1
Ruobing Su/Business Insider

The amount of testing a country conducts also influences its death rate — a calculation of the number of deaths out of the total number of cases. If more mild cases are caught, the death rate is lower.

As of Sunday, South Korea reported nearly 8,900 cases and 104 deaths. That's a death rate of around 1.2%. In Italy, where there are 5,476 deaths and 59,138 cases, the death rate is approximately 9.3%.

World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last month that the global death rate of the coronavirus is about 3.4%. 

In the US, New York upped its testing capacity this week — the state has now tested more than 32,000 people.

"We did 10,000 tests last night," New York Governor Andrew Cuomo wrote on Twitter on Friday. "New York has been very aggressive about increasing our number of tests."

New York has diagnosed more than 15,000 cases of coronavirus — a much higher number than any other state, and nearly half of all US diagnoses to date. In Washington state, where the second-highest number of coronavirus cases has been confirmed, labs have tallied nearly than 1,800 cases.

Aria Bendix, Rhea Mahbubani Kamal, and Hilary Brueck contributed reporting.

 

Read next

Holly Secon is an editorial science fellow at Business Insider and INSIDER based in San Francisco. Before joining Business Insider, she worked as an editor at GreenBiz, a sustainability media company. She graduated in 2017 from UC Berkeley with a degree in media studies. Get in touch with her at hsecon@jkmperu.com.