The supply chain crisis has become so ubiquitous in the US that it's spawned its own genre of memes. But consumers and jokemakers alike might finally have an opportunity to rejoice: It looks like the gnarled supply chain might finally be untangling itself.
Goods are taking less time to get across the ocean. Shipping is getting cheaper. Retailers are also sitting on piles of inventory — a reversal from last year's bare shelves. That could bode well for your wallet.
As reported by Alex Kantrowitz in Big Technology, an analysis from logistics company Flexport — which just snapped up Amazon's former head of retail as CEO — saw an important gauge slide down yet again.
Flexport's Ocean Timeliness Indicator tracks how long it takes for an item to leave when it's ready to go from its original port to when it's picked up at the port it's headed to. It took more than 110 days for goods to make their way from Asia to the US in October 2021; that has dramatically fallen to 95 days in the week ending July 10. While 15 days may not seem that dramatic, it makes a huge difference to American shoppers used to 2-day shipping — and it's a rate not seen since mid-2021.
At the same time, economists see supply chains stabilizing. In a Monday note from Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Lisa Shalett, the investment bank found that "pressures on global supply chains have eased."
The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks how much it costs to ship bulk commodities, has also been tumbling. The index is a composite of several different major shipping costs, and the decline in recent weeks shows those costs getting closer to normal. In late summer and early fall of 2021, the index began to spike, as supply chain woes seemed to dominate the economy. Now it's back at lows unseen since April 2021.
In January, the New York Federal Reserve said that the supply chain crisis may have peaked, and "might start to moderate somewhat going forward." Now, seven months later, it seems like that's finally happening.
That's good news for consumers used to sky-high prices
While Morgan Stanley warns that supply chains stabilizing may be dour news for corporate profits, it may provide some relief to the consumers who have gotten used to waiting months for more expensive goods.
Target, for instance, has already started marking down its excess inventory, which includes pandemic-era popular picks like home goods and outdoor furniture. CEO Brian Cornell said in a June call with investors that they "didn't anticipate the magnitude" of the shift away from categories like outdoor furniture, televisions, and kitchen appliances. Just last year, some consumers found themselves staring down bare shelves looking for those same items.
Target isn't the only retailer with too much stuff. Companies like Walmart, Kohl's, and Dick's are sitting on much more inventory than they were last year. That inventory seems to be making its way into bargain stores; The Wall Street Journal reported that Donna Griffin, a 61-year-old retiree, bought some $100 off-season coats marked down to $2.75 at a nearby bargain store in Alabama.
That's a good deal for Donna, and she may not be alone in paying less soon. A more stable supply chain will be good news for cash-strapped bargain hunters. Supply chain issues, and resulting shortages, have been one of the forces propelling inflation to levels unseen in decades.
When Americans emerged from pandemic-era lockdowns into a post-vaccine era, they were eager to spend and keep buying and buying — but the goods just weren't there. So the stuff that was here got a whole lot more expensive. That continued scarcity has helped keep prices high. But with the supply chain finally righting itself, stuff is now more than abundantly available, and goods and services prices aren't climbing up at the same clip, as Insider's Ben Winck reported.
As inflation finally seems to peak, that might be good news all around for Americans' wallets. Just don't expect prices to drop right away.
