Heading into SpaceX's historic IPO, the chatter from skeptics was loud.
Some criticized the company's initial valuation as far too high. Others balked at what they saw as pie-in-the-sky ideas that would take decades to realize. Another popular narrative was that retail investors — who were afforded a larger-than-usual portion of shares — would run out of buying power in the early days of trading.
Well, those critics are feeling pretty good about themselves lately, with SpaceX shares trading below their $135 offer price for most of the past two sessions after a multiweek decline.
BI checked back in with some of the SpaceX bears we covered in the lead up to the IPO, and their response was a near-universal "I told you so." Not one has budged in their view that SpaceX doesn't belong as one of the world's most valuable companies.
Recent events haven't helped the stock's woes. SpaceX was forced to abort a rocket launch last Thursday due to engine failure, pushing shares down further to end the week.
Here are 3 quick stats, listed in decreasing monetary order, that explain what's going on with SpaceX right now, and how shares could trade going forward:
$1 trillion
This is how much market value has been erased since the post-IPO closing high. The chart above tells the tale: Shares peaked on day three of trading, valuing the company at $2.64 trillion. They then lost the majority of that gain over the following week, and have been on a gradual grind lower ever since. As of Friday's close, SpaceX was worth $1.63 trillion.
$5 billion
This is the paper gains for SpaceX short-sellers since the IPO, according to data from S3 Partners, which estimates that around 30% of the total float has been sold short. And the success has emboldened these investors, with short interest up nearly five times in the past month, S3 said.
1.37 billion
This is the number of shares that will be unlocked and able to be sold two full trading days after SpaceX's second-quarter earnings report, which is due after the closing bell on Aug. 17, according to SEC filings. That's 20% of the company's early-release-eligible shares. Even if just a portion of that gets offloaded, it could have a major impact on the public share price.
… But let's not get ahead of ourselves
It's not unusual for mega-cap market debutants to hit a rough patch before roaring to new highs. That's the path Meta (then Facebook) followed starting in 2012, when it tanked for a few months before morphing into the market-conquering force we know today.
Wall Street analysts, meanwhile, are unabashedly bullish on the stock. At the end of last week, there were 30 buy ratings, 6 holds, and just one sell, according to Bloomberg data. UBS, Bernstein, and Raymond James went as far as to reaffirm their buy ratings on Friday amid the latest bout of selling.
The consensus 12-month price target is $235.34, 90% above Friday's close. Wall Street is still clearly on board with SpaceX's bull thesis, and willing to wait out some early bumps.
No one ever said it was going to be a straight trip higher for SpaceX. Just over five weeks into being a public company, it's finding out how volatile trading can be for a high-flying growth stock.
