We figured it was a good time to look back on how Somali pirates disrupted world shipping a few years ago, and how they almost disappeared.
Piracy in the Western Indian Ocean had an economic cost of $7 billion in 2010, according to non-profit Oceans Beyond Piracy. By 2015, that number had fallen to $1.3 billion thanks to countermeasures including the rise of naval patrols and industry recommendations to go faster, follow certain routes, and post armed guards when passing through the danger zone.
The following maps from the International Maritime Bureau show piracy incidents around the world during the rise, fall, and potential resurgence of Somali piracy.
The world saw 293 pirate attacks in 2008, including about 129 around Somalia (red shows actual attacks, yellow shows attempted attacks).
International Maritime Bureau
Pirate attacks soared to 406 in 2009, with 217 around Somalia.
International Maritime Bureau
There were were 445 attacks in 2010, with 219 around Somalia.
International Maritime Bureau
There were 439 attacks in 2011, with 237 around Somalia.
International Maritime Bureau
Pirate attacks fell to 297 in 2012, while Somali attacks plunged to 75.
International Maritime Bureau
There were 264 attacks in 2013, with only 15 around Somalia.
International Maritime Bureau
There were 245 attacks in 2014, with only 11 around Somalia.
International Maritime Bureau
There were 246 attacks in 2015, with only 3 around Somalia.
International Maritime Bureau
The first half of 2016 saw only 98 attacks—a 21-year low—with only 1 around Somalia.
International Maritime Bureau
So why are people worried about a resurgence of piracy around Somalia?
AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh, File
First, countermeasures are slipping. After avoiding dangerous routes at the height of the crisis, ships have started going closer to shore. They're also going slower and spending less money on armed guards. Meanwhile, the foreign naval presence off Somalia is shrinking.
Shipping patterns 2000–2015: ships moved away from the Somali coast during the piracy crisis but have returned.
Oceans Beyond Piracy
Second, political conditions are ripe. Somalis are resentful of extensive illegal foreign shipping, increasing support for piracy. Meanwhile, ongoing instability limits the government's ability to control criminal gangs. "Suddenly, the opportunity is improving," anti-piracy expert John Steed said. "No one has tried it yet, but the potential is there for it to come back."
AP Photo/Karel Prinsloo
Third, there are quiet signs of increased activity, according to OBP, including attacks on small ships that might not make the IMB record. Just look at the rising number of hostages in the past year.
Finally, there's the unpredictable and dangerous element of Islamic extremists. In early October, Houthi rebels in Yemen fired anti-ship missiles at a UAE military ship. In late October, an ISIS-linked group captured a port town on the north coast of Somalia. It's not clear how these groups will interact with the pirates, but there are plenty of reasons to worry.
Houthi fighters react while riding on the back of a truck as they attend a tribal gathering in Sanaa, YemenThomson Reuters
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