What smart people are saying about IBM's AI warning and SaaSpocalypse fears

Chamath Palihapitiya said IBM's stumble reflects a much bigger problem facing the AI industry: Companies selling intelligence are making enormous sums, but it's unclear whether their customers can turn those costs into profits of their own.

"The downstream ecosystem has to make money as well," Palihapitiya said Tuesday when asked about Krishna's letter on CNBC. "And then, the ultimate buyer of these tokens also has to make money."

He stopped short of blaming IBM's problems on its pivot to AI and cloud computing, and praised Krishna for repositioning the company.

Palihapitiya was less forgiving of IBM's suggestion that rapidly evolving cybersecurity concerns distracted some customers during the quarter.

He said AI companies and their investors have repeatedly swung between extremes: describing the technology as an all-powerful breakthrough when raising money, then warning that it poses an existential threat when seeking regulation.

Bourne told Business Insider in an email that IBM was hit with a "triple whammy."

He said the AI buildout is directing corporate spending toward hardware rather than software and services. At the same time, investors are punishing legacy companies that appear to be falling behind. Finally, AI-native challengers such as Anthropic are putting additional pressure on traditional software business models.

"We can expect more quarters like this one, but I think it's a disruption story, not necessarily an extinction one for legacy software companies," he wrote. "Spending patterns will shift from the present focus, and the vendors that adapt their products to the changing market will stay competitive."

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In an X post, Basak, a strategist at iCapital and former Bloomberg TV anchor, said that IBM had a "brutal showing" and that investors need to focus on how long IBM's clients will invest their capital elsewhere.

"The direct acknowledgment that clients have shifted AI capex spend toward core infrastructure — the question is how long the "reprioritization" lasts," Basak wrote on Tuesday.

Mugalli wrote on X that he believes IBM is the first major casualty of a broader shift in enterprise spending.

He argued that IBM's miss shows the limits of corporate budgets. As hardware became scarcer and more expensive, executives prioritized servers, storage, and memory over software deals that could be delayed.

"This is the SaaS reckoning arriving exactly the way it would," Mugalli wrote, "not with cancellations, but with deprioritization. "

Mugalli predicted IBM would not be the last enterprise software company to feel that pressure, pointing specifically to Palantir and ServiceNow.

Niles wrote on X that IBM's warning was an example of the AI "speed bump" he has been expecting.

He also said that customers redirected spending toward AI late in the quarter, cutting into IBM's mainframe and related software business. He said that much of that revenue is supposed to be recurring, making the shortfall more concerning.

"Given software is a back-end loaded business, I doubt this is the last casualty," he wrote.

In a note on Tuesday, Evercore ISI analysts led by Daryanani said IBM's disappointing quarter was largely driven by weaker-than-expected mainframe sales and related software, rather than broad-based weakness.

They added that customers shifted IT spending toward servers, storage, and memory amid supply constraints and cybersecurity concerns, while other businesses, including Red Hat, remained resilient.