Every deal has a winner, and Microsoft is going to be the winner in its recent deal with Nokia.
So says research firm Gartner, predicting that Microsoft will rise to number-two in the smartphone market by 2015, putting it ahead of Apple's iOS. Gartner is even more bullish on Windows Phone than IDG, which drew a similar conclusion earlier this month.
The firm says that Microsoft will ship about 216 Windows Phone handsets in 2015, giving it 19.5% share of the smartphone market.
That's great news for Microsoft, which is basically nowhere today, but not so great for Nokia -- Symbian currently has 37.6% market share, so swapping out for Windows Phone will lead to a big net loss in market share.
The big winner, according to Gartner: Android, with nearly 50% of the market. Gartner believes Apple's market share will peak this year, then begin to decline as Microsoft and Android take over.
Of course, there's enough growth for everyone -- even RIM, which will increase its shipments nearly 3x in the next four years, while losing market share.
Here's the full chart:
|
OS |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2015 |
|
Symbian |
111,577 |
89,930 |
32,666 |
661 |
|
Market Share (%) |
37.6 |
19.2 |
5.2 |
0.1 |
|
Android |
67,225 |
179,873 |
310,088 |
539,318 |
|
Market Share (%) |
22.7 |
38.5 |
49.2 |
48.8 |
|
Research In Motion |
47,452 |
62,600 |
79,335 |
122,864 |
|
Market Share (%) |
16.0 |
13.4 |
12.6 |
11.1 |
|
iOS |
46,598 |
90,560 |
118,848 |
189,924 |
|
Market Share (%) |
15.7 |
19.4 |
18.9 |
17.2 |
|
Microsoft |
12,378 |
26,346 |
68,156 |
215,998 |
|
Market Share (%) |
4.2 |
5.6 |
10.8 |
19.5 |
|
Other Operating Systems |
11,417.4 |
18,392.3 |
21,383.7 |
36,133.9 |
|
Market Share (%) |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
|
Total Market |
296,647 |
467,701 |
630,476 |
1,104,898 |
