Military & Defense

It's about to get unspeakably messy in Iraq

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And it's not just ISIS the civilians have to worry about.

The Shia militias, backed by Iran, are apparently close to running amok. Michael Pregent, a former US intelligence officer and military adviser to the Iraqi security forces, wrote this week that the Shia-led government in Baghdad might have little control over the militias it allows to fight the Islamic State (also known as ISIS, ISIL, and Daesh).

"The introduction of Shia militias into Sunni areas has a polarizing effect on the Sunni population," Pregent told Business Insider via email.

"They will be wearing green bandanas and have [Iranian Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei posters on their windshields and they are intentionally sending a message to the Sunni population [that] 'things have changed and we are now in control,' meaning Iranian-backed Shia militias now run the security and political apparatus."

iraq shia militia
A member from Hashid Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) holds a picture of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (L) and Iraq's top Shi'ite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani (R) in Baghdad March 31, 2015.   REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

Morris wrote in the Post that "the move by the militias effectively carves operations against the extremists in Iraq’s Anbar province into two spheres of influence — with Iranian-supported militias zeroing in on Fallujah as US-backed forces target Ramadi, the provincial capital, 40 miles farther west toward the border with Syria."

Fallujah
Fallujah is located between Ramadi and Baghdad.  Google Maps

The US has insisted that Iraqi security forces take the lead in the assault on Ramadi, so the Shia militias likely saw an opportunity with Fallujah.

"Fallujah is where the [Shia militias] know they can lead because leading the fight for Ramadi was never going to be an option for them," said Michael Knights, a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told the Post.

isis control
The Institute for the Study of War

Meanwhile, Sunni fighters that the US says are key to defeating ISIS for good have been largely sidelined in the fight so far because Baghdad and Tehran are reportedly concerned that they might one day rise up against the government.

This all leads to the current predicament of having Shia fighters moving into Sunni areas, rather than Sunni fighters defending their own territory.

fallujah iraq us marines
Fallujah, Iraq.  Wikimedia Commons

Although Iraqi officials said in May that they've enlisted 1,000 fighters for a Sunni militia to aid the country's security forces in Sunni-dominated Anbar province, those fighters don't seem to be participating in the Fallujah operation.

And Iran's influence in the region is becoming increasingly obvious.

This week, Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was spotted near Fallujah:

Shia militias have emerged as the most effective fighting force against ISIS in Iraq, but some say the Shia fighters aren't much better than the ISIS terrorists they're trying to expunge. (Others, however, have welcomed the Shia militias as the best option for helping Sunni tribal fighters drive ISIS out of Iraq.) 

Shiraz Maher, a senior fellow at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization and himself a former extremist, pointed out that, like ISIS, the Shia militias train child soldiers:

Sunnis in some areas that Shia militias have liberated from ISIS have complained that the militias view them with distrust and are preventing them from returning to their homes.

"The militias see no difference between Sunni military-aged-males and ISIS fighters," Pregent told Business Insider recently. "They view Sunnis that have not left ISIS-controlled areas as collaborators and use heavy handed tactics against the population. ISIS will exploit these events to the detriment of the US strategy and Baghdad."

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Pamela was the Executive Editor overseeing INSIDER's global news teams. She was previously a senior reporter covering politics, foreign policy, and national security. Before BI, she worked for the Associated Press in Indianapolis. She has also written for The Columbus Dispatch, the Scripps Howard news wire, and the New York Observer.