Markets

Changes in earnings growth and the US dollar have almost no correlation

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The Dollar Index  Bloomberg

The US dollar has been on a tear.

Early on Thursday, the dollar index (DXY), which measures it against other major currencies, hit 100 for the first time since April 2003.

And BMO Capital Markets has heard enough from the "dollar doomsayers," particularly investors who say the strong dollar will definitely derail the bull market. They're increasing the "noise quotient," chief investment strategist Brian Belski wrote in a note Wednesday.

"This remains the largest stealth bull market of our collective careers, one that no one believes and everyone is OBSESSED with looking over their shoulder to diagnose its end," he wrote. "Strengthening US dollar means that the US economy is improving, which is a reflection of an increasingly stable and fundamentally sound US stock market – PERIOD... Changes in year-over-year earnings growth and the US dollar also have almost no correlation with each other historically."

The chart below shows that longer-term, there's no direct relationship between the Compound Annual Growth Rate on stocks and the dollar. 

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BMO Capital Markets


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Akin Oyedele
Akin edits flagship newsletters including First Trade and Tech Memo, as well as weekly topical roundups of Business Insider's coverage including Defense Flash. He also provides editorial support for the development and launch of new newsletters.    Prior to this role, he was a markets reporter for over a decade and edited Business Insider's investing coverage. He covered bonds and FX at Bloomberg before joining BI in 2014.