The preeminent driver of the commodity bull market is China.
Michael Pettis presents some incredible numbers in his latest newsletter. While China's GDP is only 9.4% of the global economy, and its population is 19% of the world population...
- Cement demand represents 53.2% of global demand
- Iron ore = 47.7%
- Coal = 46.9%
- Pigs = 46.4%
- Steel = 45.4%
- Lead = 44.6%
- Zinc = 41.3%
- Aluminum = 40.6%
- Copper = 38.9%
- Eggs = 37.2%
- Nickel = 36.3%
Some of that demand is relatively stable, like food consumption. The world's largest country has a middle class that can afford meat for the first time.
Some of it is less so, like building materials, which depend on fixed asset investment. Other markets, like copper, have been inflated by stockpiling.
You know what happens when China slows down.
